Fire RileTier 1
at DTR Regionals!
decks
11
(28.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57
30-17-10
overall winrate
61.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
57.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1369
· range 1093–1558
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1188
Q3 1404
1558
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.4% | 14 | 6-6-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 75.9% | +16.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Genbu | 2.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 25.3% | -15.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Staggering Strike, Merlin, Kingslayer. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Water Resonance Bauble, Innervate Agility.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Merlin, Memory Thief
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Unyielding Wraithguard
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Cinder Geyser
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 128 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 108 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.30 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.10 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.10 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blade of Creation | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hub of Innovation | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sanctum of Esoteric Truth | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Ruins | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chamber of Reflections | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Eternal Kingdom | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wayfinder's Map | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Navigate the Streets | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Creation's Will | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assemble the Ancients | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Tea Party | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reciprocity, Dorumegia's Call | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Caliburn of Silencing | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |